Traffic slowdown predicted for 2005

Emily Pacey

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Passenger numbers for 2005 will not be as high as previously calculated, the latest projections from Air4casts.com suggest

Global passenger air traffic growth will be 5.6% higher this year than in 2004 according to the latest forecasts from Air4casts.com. Europe is expected to see passenger traffic rise by 6.2% this year due to buoyant demand for international travel. However, the USA will only gain 4.8% more passengers this year, lower than projected in the last forecast.

The report incorporates forecast reductions from Airports Council International and the International Air Transport Association. The worst adjustments were made for North America and Asia/Pacific, down by 2.1% and 3.3% respectively. The greatest gains are expected in the Middle East, where traffic is forecast to rise by 9.3%, and in Latin America, which may see an increase of 8.7%.

The global forecast for the first quarter of 2006 is even less encouraging, showing total passenger growth of just 3%. As in recent years, medium-sized airports offer the best growth prospects, at 9.4% compared with 3.1% for the world's five largest airports.

The report also includes the results of a consumer poll on low-cost airlines. It indicates that 7% more business travellers used low-cost carriers in the first quarter of 2005 than in the corresponding period last year. Thirty-two percent of people polled said they intended to travel low-cost next time they flew.

A section on security and airport shopping said that passengers find airports increasingly frustrating to shop in. 29% of respondents declared an intention to purchase nothing at airport shops, a third of them blaming "aggravating" airport conditions for their decision.