Tourism down, but not out: WTO statement

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The terrorist attacks on New York and Washington last week dealt a terrible blow to the travel-related industries, but officials of the World Tourism Organization (WTO) are predicting that the industry will demonstrate its characteristic resilience with a recovery.

WTO secretary-general Francesco Frangialli sent a message of sympathy and solidarity to the US following the attacks, then flew to a meeting of tourism ministers from the CIS nations in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, where a declaration strongly condemning terrorism was adopted.

Frangialli commented: "It is important that an international organisation such as ours demonstrates that it has the courage to continue in the face of adversity." Delegates to the WTO general assembly set to open in Seoul later this month will discuss how the events in the US will affect world tourism, but WTO analysts agree that the true impact will be hard to determine.

"The magnitude of the tourism crisis will also depend a great deal on what happens in the weeks to come. If further actions are confined to a single region of the world, there would be less repercussion," commented Frangialli.

"The Gulf Crisis was very different, so we cannot take our evaluation directly from those years. In this case it is the US that is most affected and the US is the number one tourism power in terms of international receipts, domestic tourism and international spending," he said.

According to WTO, during the first eight months of 2001, world tourism was on track for an increase of 2.5% to 3%, following an extraordinary growth rate of 7.4% in the millennium year 2000. Barring widespread new developments, 2001 should still see positive growth for tourism, albeit at a slightly slower rate of 1.5% to 2%.

"Not only are many tourists and business travellers, especially in the US, postponing their trips, there are additional costs for the industry as it increases and improves security," said Frangialli. "Tourism businesses are seeing their profits squeezed between declining activity, the cost of new security measures and the increasing price of oil."

But he said world markets are over-reacting when it comes to losses in the share prices of airlines and tourism companies.

"We shouldn't jump to conclusions," Frangialli said. "We have learned from experience that the tourism industry recovers very quickly from adversity."

International air passengers declined during the Gulf War, from 280m in 1990 to 266m in 1991, but tourist arrivals crept up by 1.2% and receipts increased by 2.1%.

"Despite all the conflicts we've had in the world over the past 50 years, there has never been one year that experienced a decline in tourism," said the secretary-general.