JRA measures US recovery from 200m lost customers

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The latest report from Geneva-based analysts JRA measures the recovery in the US travel sector and questions what has happened to the 46m fewer US domestic travellers in the second quarter of 2002. On an annual basis this equates to almost 200m lost passengers in 2002.

According to the paper, USA Air Passenger Forecasts 2002, travel numbers are forecast to show a continuing if slight improvement in quarter two and quarter three of this year. Domestic travel is showing only a slight improvement, posting a 13.4% decline in the second quarter, compared to 2001, and a 12.5% decline in the third quarter. The recovery in international traffic is slightly stronger but from a much lower base. JRA said internationally there is still a question mark about the key transatlantic sector because the January increase failed to be carried through into February.

Quarter two in 2002 will be some 46m passengers down on 2001 with very little increase showing on a monthly basis. US air traffic in the full year 2002 is forecast to be some 7% down on 2001, but 13% down on 2000. The reality is that the US air travel business is now trading at 1995 / 1996 levels, said JRA. 

A vital question now is whether traffic can step up to compensate for the "lost years". According to JRA figures, US passengers have not transferred to the roads and if they have gone on the railways, Amtrak is not disclosing figures.

For further information, please contact Jane Robinson at:
JRA
Rue du Rhone 14
1204 Geneva
Switzerland
Tel: +41 22 819 1818
Fax: +41 22 819 9484
Email: info@jradata.com