Global civil aviation body notches up travel forecasts

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The latest forecasts prepared by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) indicate that passenger traffic should return to robust growth by 2004 with a smaller rebound expected next year. In the longer term, assuming continuation of restored consumer confidence and a stable economic and operating environment, ICAO said global scheduled passenger traffic growth can be expected at about 5% per year, measured in passenger-kilometres performed (PKPs).

ICAO said total scheduled passenger traffic of the world's airlines has stabilised following the sharp decline last year, with "zero growth" anticipated for 2002. Traffic should rebound in 2003, mainly due to an expected overall strengthening of the world economy. Preliminary estimates show the world's scheduled airlines suffered a total net loss of $12bn in 2001.

"The drop in demand for air travel also resulted in revenue and job losses at airports and by other service providers," said ICAO.

International and domestic scheduled passenger traffic generated by airlines covered by ICAO was 3,017bn PKPs in 2000 and is estimated at 4% down at just over 2,900bn PKPs for both 2001 and 2002.  Traffic trends will also vary by geographical region because of the impact of specific local factors. Traffic of both North American and European carriers is expected to show a decline in 2002, for the second year in a row. Carriers in Africa, Asia/Pacific and the Middle East managed to achieve at least minimal growth in 2001, with increased growth anticipated from 2002 onwards.

ICAO scheduled passenger traffic forecasts 2002 - 2003

Africa                                  2002: +3.0% 2003: +6.5%
Asia/Pacific                         2002: +3.5% 2003: +7.9%
Europe                                2002: -1.2%  2003: +7.8%
Middle East                         2002: +3.8% 2003: +7.5%
North America                     2002: -2.3%  2003: +6.0%
Latin America & Caribbean 2002: +2.0% 2003: +7.5%
World                                  2002:  0.0%  2003: +7.1%

Note: Figures are percentage growth year-on-year in passenger-kilometres performed (PKPs).
Source: ICAO

• Additional details can be obtained from the forthcoming ICAO Circular "The World of Civil Aviation 2001 - 2004." For more information on ICAO publications email: sales_unit@icao.int