Asia to lead 2005 surge in passengers

Dermot Davitt

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Data from 314 airports suggests return to strong passenger growth during 2005

A survey by respected industry analyst JRA claims that Asia/Pacific will lead a surge in global passenger numbers in 2005. At a forecast growth rate of 9.5%, the region will outstrip predicted growth worldwide of 6.9%, slightly slower than the rate of growth in 2004.

World Forecasts, which has been released to RavenFox.com, is a rolling monthly forecast of passenger traffic at 314 of the world's big airports, accounting for over 92% of all international passenger traffic. The forecasts for the year are updated and extended as more data is accumulated month by month.

According to the latest survey, traffic will rise by 9.2% in the Middle East and 9.6% in Latin America, although the biggest passenger volumes will be in Asia/Pacific and Europe. The US forecast of 5.4% growth is the lowest for any region, but international passenger numbers there will grow faster than domestic traffic. International passenger traffic from the US in 2005 will be 13.5% up on 2000, while transatlantic passengers will be up by 13.8% on last year.

The survey said that Asian traffic will be unaffected by the December tsunami. Asia will also be buoyed by "hyper-growth" in China, bolstered by the Chinese currency's peg to the dollar.

The survey also forecast worldwide passenger growth for individual months during 2005 compared to 2004. The survey claimed: "The first quarter should be buoyant and that will continue over into the second period. The third quarter will be quieter but the fourth quarter will begin strongly and looks as if it may tail off towards the end of the year."

The survey is also broken down by selected cities. Traffic at London's airports is forecast to be up by 6.9% for the year as a whole, while passenger growth in Paris will rise by 5.4% compared to 2004.

For more information log onto www.air4casts.com